Since 2015, on the global 1M timeframe, the EUR/USD currency pair has been forming a new structure in the form of a channel with estimated boundaries.
As of today:
- The price has once again approached the upper boundary of the estimated channel.
- Approximately at the same level, there is a “resistance block” formed by previous price consolidation (H&S or double top on lower timeframes).
- Additionally, the price has formed a “move-accumulation-move” structure, after which the formation of corrective candles is likely.
Possible scenarios:
- In the near term, a corrective price movement is probable in the form of consolidation at the boundary of the estimated channel, followed by an upward move.
- However, it should be taken into account that the price is currently moving upward and may, in impulsive movements, break through the nearest resistance block and return to the channel boundary, forming one or more candles with long upper wicks.
Scenario realization